Future of Internet Poker

I have a lot to catch up on since I've been avoiding updates, including:

• Victim of fraud through Pacific/888
• Internet poker burnout
• A new local live game I've been playing
• Sportsbook bonuses
• A new computer

For now, I'll just post an e-mail I wrote which summarizes my opinions of the new internet poker legislation. The usual disclaimer (this is the opinion of someone with no legal knowledge) applies. In response to a cardplayer article "What's NOT Included in Anti-Gaming Legislation" by Allyn Jaffrey Shulman:

Tons of rumors around, we'll see how it shakes out.

Honestly, I think that cardplayer article is trying to put a positive spin on things. Yes, some online sites will still survive. But yes, this is going to change the poker landscape significantly.

For one thing, Ms Shulman does not address the fact that employees of companies could be arrested on entering the US. Could that extend to Hellmuth and Duke? Possibly. So most sponsorships may be out the window. Furthermore, advertising for TV shows will certainly decline.

Personally, I'll probably still keep playing if it isn't too difficult (since the bill really can't touch me, just the people who move my money). But probably not nearly as much, because the games are going to get much harder. Realistically, the main people who will stop playing are the random kids and dad's around the country who make up the fish supply. The vaste majority of players who were thinking of giving real-money play a shot will probably avoid it now too. That leaves only the true hard-core degenerates for the fish supply, and I expect the number of fish will be a fraction of what it is now (and the primarily european sites will be locking us out). Think about it -- cut the fish population in 1/3, and suddenly beating the rake isn't that easy.

For the record, I'm trying to be realistic, not be a pessimist. I've got approx $3K spread around maybe 10 sites (half of those are sportsbooks) and I haven't withdrawn anything before I normally would. That's not including $1K in Neteller. The only thing I've don't differently is burned a Party bonus last night (instead of taking a week to do it) and depositing in some sportsbooks to make sure I got my bonuses locked in before the legislation. Beyond that, I'm just not going to open any new accounts, focusing on Stars until it is clear they are locking us out, then maybe moving to UB.

Oh, yeah, I probably ought to remove the few links in my so-called blog just in case.

FYI, I saw somewhere that Party is encouraging people to keep money on their site because they are working on something else US players can spend their money on. Maybe it is fantasy horse and dog racing poker? The flop comes greyhound, doberman, bulldog, so I'll raise you two thoroughbreds.

I'm burned out on poker...

... which will probably last until tomorrow.

Things have been running really, really well for me the past few months since I switched back to concentrating on NL again. Just finished a bonus on Party attempting to multi-table $50 NL 6-max for the first time. It went well and I cleared ~$250 with the bonus. I may consider multi-tabling $100 NL 6-max on Stars to clear the reload bonus I have over there. In general I think I need a few more hours on $100 NL (maybe I'll finish off the Full Tilt bonus) and then I plan to take some shots at $200NL.

Oh, yeah, my bankroll is now a little over $4.1K. NL is treating me really well, and I'm only now starting to suffer some bad beats which I am honestly way overdue for. Here's a nice little graph:



I signed up for Full Tilt through Poker Source Online (leave a comment if you want a referral for there, and we can work a little something out in return if you like). I'm pretty happy with PSO -- I'm planning on doing Bodog next through them and a few others to augment the weaker sign-up bonuses. In general, I'm just trying to make sure I always play with a bonus since I don't really pull that many hours and I might as well get a large portion of the rake back through bonuses.


I also tried out the $200+25 Lucky Chances Sunday tournament -- I final tabled it, but busted out the first hand when my 55 couldn't beat the chip leader's A5o. Still, 10th place of 124 paid $500, so I'm not too upset. I definitely have the money to play it occasionally.

In general, I felt quite comfortable and was actually picking up some tells on the other players. Only once was I behind when the money went in (and in my defense, I had the best hand pre-flop, and was pretty much pot-committed). I was not very aggressive though, even when I lucked into a big stack.

I can't say enough about the tournament staff at Lucky Chances. I thought it was a very well-run tournament, much better than Artichoke Joe's. This is what I wrote about it to a friend who inquired:

It was a pretty good tournament, actually -- I liked it a lot better
than Artichoke Joe's (the other local tourney I've played). I'd
definitely recommend it.

Buy-in was $200+25, so that's a little high, but players were
generally decent but not too good until you get later in the tourney.
The structure is fast but not nearly as fast as AJs or Garden City
tournaments -- 20 minute rounds, usually blinds/antes don't double
except for rounds 4-5. Not having a rebuy helps too -- tends to thin
out the tables in a more natural way giving a bit more play. They did
have 24 alternates (+ 124 players total, top prize $9K, top ten pay).

The main thing I noticed is they really went out of their way to let
the players know what was going on with announcements, plasmas showing
the current level/blinds, and quick floor people when there was a
dispute. I found the tournament staff very good and responsive and
the dealers were pretty good too.

I ended up busting the first hand of the final table to take 10th and
$500. Can't really complain because I didn't really suffer any bad
luck the whole time to that point.

The buy-in is a bit much for me, but since I won that time I will
definitely be playing it again in the next month or two.

That's it for now. I've played poker 90% of the days for the past three weeks or so, so I think it is time to slow down and take a few days off or cut down on hours. I can really feel the tilt and fatigue building, so I might as well quit while I'm ahead.

Win Streak Over

16 winning days over three weeks. +$540.

Good riddance. Now I can get back to playing without trying to 'pull out a win'.

No complaints though -- in the last two months I've made over $2K, nearly doubling my bankroll with a bit to spare for the family. Here's hoping I can keep the run going.

The run directly correllates with the refocusing on NL and not chasing bonuses as much. It pays to play your best game.

The Incredible Shrinking Tables!

Gotta love Stars' new beta. It is obvious they realized that allowing tables to be resized would make Stars more popular with the multi-tablers and get more business. And they've really implemented a good system (although configuration is still a little clunky).

For me, being able to shrink the tables lets me 4-table on my laptop very nicely (I realized a while ago that it was -EV for me to lay tables on top of each other -- between the blinking and the mis-clicks, I make a lot of mistakes).

So, first order of business was to play a Stars $20+2 180 while I played the blogger tournament. That was a dumb idea :) I wasn't really in big tournament mode and busted out pretty quick in the 180 (somehow 80 other donkeys busted before me though). I went relatively deep in the blogger tournament (317th) but was short-stacked and probably playing too weak-tight.

After that, I wanted to take one more shot at keeping the winning streak alive (one reason I should probably just take a loss so I stop trying to force wins). At first, I was thinking 6-max 100 NL, but then I remembered I could 4-table some SnGs. So that's what I did -- I fired up 3 $20+2 SnGs (having a quadrant of my screen available is handy) and ended up getting 3rd, 1st, and 1st. Mostly I was playing pure aggression (raise, raise, raise -- oh, someone called me pre-flop? bet out and see what happens). It was hella fun :) I think I had the upside of variance in general (although the third place table I had KK cracked by AJ, built back up again, and lost a coinflip).

So, maybe I should take a break from 6-max and do some sets of SnGs until I get bored with it. I think it would be pretty profitable (I'd say players are generally too tight and passive when it gets down to the bubble time). At $2 of bonus per tourney, it'd probably burn through my Stars bonus pretty quick too.

Brief update...

My (almost) three-year old just said "I want a snack like Back-yarnnn-i-gans." And so I get to post a quick update before my son's last day fair at school.

Consider yourself warned. It is amazing how the songs in these kids shows get stuck in your head. Like waking up in the middle of the night wanting to sing kind of stuck.

Anyway, a few random poker comments.

First, I've been on a heater since my last losing streak. As in running off 13 winning days in a row for +$400 and over $16/hr + bonuses. I won't lie, I've been playing pretty low (especially burning off the latest party bonus 4-tabling $25NL) and adjusting the types of games I play to see how long I can make the winning streak go. That's probably not good. But I am very satisfied with breaking out of the losing streak and maintaining a balanced schedule and a positive outlook.

I played at Lucky Chances Monday for a $63 win. I played like a nit, super tight, but it will bring home (small amounts) of money in that game. The structure was ok, $200 max buy, 1-1-2 blinds ($1 on the button) but you need to bring it in for $4. Rake/jackpot takes $5 from every pot with a flop. Maybe it was just my table, but it seems like the players are better than the $100 spread Garden City game. I'd really like to work towards having the bankroll and confidence to open it up in live $100-$200 NL games.

One comment on Speaker's recent entry. Never get down about bad starting hands. In NL, preflop hands really don't matter that much. Things like position, first in with a raise vig, and hitting the flop matter a lot more. Focusing on the cards only makes you tighten up and miss profitable situations in NL, even late in tournaments. Raising with a large pocket pair scares me a hell of a lot more than raising with a stealing hand because I'm never sure if I'll need to let the pair go, but I know I can drop a stealing or drawing hand easily if I miss.