Playing Backwards

I'm writing this with half an hour until the FCP Protege Seat 1 semi starts. I'm very excited about competing but I don't have high hopes -- 25% chance of getting a jersey, 2.5% chance of winning (assuming I am equally as good as the other players). Yeah, I want the seat and I'm going to fight for it, but I have to be realistic -- even getting this far it is a long-shot. I've also made a conscious decision to NOT settle for a jersey and shoot for first place (unless I am in really bad shape when it comes time to eliminate 11th place).

Poker, in general, has been mediocre. January will be my first down month (about $80) since July. Granted, I made over $275 from Martins Poker bonuses (more if you count the ones I haven't finished yet there and at Eurobet). But, my last session at 6-max LHE I dropped 40BB -- ouch. It sucks to end up losing money after 30 hours of online limit play at $2/4 and less.

I was playing with my stats a bit to see if there was one area I was doing well in this month, and aside from HU LHE play and my live limit play nothing really stands out as something I excel at. I'm considering shifting back to more NL but it is so hard to clear bonuses.

I could blame variance, but I feel like I haven't been playing as well. Honestly, I feel like I've been succombing to fancy play syndrome (I'd give a link but I forgot who coined the phrase). In fact, I've been finding myself playing backwards. For instance, I'll bet to the river on a bluff but slow down when I hit top pair and try to get in check-raises. Or, in NL, I won't lead out with top pair decent kicker for... well... I don't know why. Ultimately, especially for limit, backwards play costs a lot of money because you don't get value for your good hands and you're pumping money into the pot with your really bad hands. Furthermore, I think I'm getting a loose table image causing bluffs to be that much less effective.

I think my backwards FPS is a result of tilt, so I need to retool my limit game yet again and go back to fundamentals. Lately, though, I haven't felt like it, so I've been burning some of my party points and playing a little crazy. Kind of fun, but probably not helping my fundamentals either.

Anyway, I should do the final prep for the tourney.

Update: Out 20th of 39. I was with the chip leaders for a while (got some great cards and flops) but I managed to bluff off a lot of money in bad situations.