Sunday, July 13, 2008

Sweet, sweet 6/12...

I won $208 in a couple of hours of $6/12 last night, after losing $10 in 3/6.

Live low limit hold'em is deliciously loose and passive!

I'm playing again this afternoon since I have a tutoring session in the area. If I win a decent amount, I may go for that poker table after all, assuming they haven't all been sold yet.

Yesterday I played pretty well, although I know I made a few mistakes (only one of which I can remember right now, and I'll list the hand below). It was one of those good days where I had a number of decent hands pre-flop and they held up (mostly) but I didn't hit many draws. If I had hit a few of my long-shot draws... then I would have had a monster day!

At one point, the guy next to me asked me "Just how many times have you gotten trips?". I said four, off the top of my head, but after we counted them up, it had a set or trips at least six times (and only lost once with those).

The one hand that I know I played sub-optimally but learned a lot by pondering it:

5h3h in late position and I limp behind a bunch of other players. Limping 53s in position is probably marginally +EV. A guy to my left raises so we get six total players to the flop for two bets. The flop comes AK2 rainbow (there may have been one heart too) and a woman in MP leads out. I call, getting 12:1 or better, but original raiser raises, woman calls, and I call after another guy (10:1 on a gutshot is borderline odds, but reasonable given implied odds). Turn is a 5, putting two of not my suit on board. Checks to raiser, he bets, one call, and on me getting 12:1 again. I call. At this point, I have raiser on AA, KK, or AK. He's been pretty tight. The other player likely has a flush draw, but I'm not positive. I called, reasoning I may have extra outs beyond the gutshot. The river is an offsuit 5, checks to me, and I bet.

Let me stop the action here for some analysis. IMO, I could have folded at any point in the hand without giving up much (if any) EV. The turn was likely a bad call. PokerStove gives me 9% or more equity on the turn (worst case, giving the other player a flush draw), so I guess it was borderline, but not necessarily bad.

The real mistake was leading on the river. If I give him a range of AA, KK, or AK, then I'm going to be ahead of him on the river 60% of the time (according to pokerstove). BTW, that 60% is completely based on hand combinations. But, the key thing is, if he has any of those hands, he'll be betting 100% of the time. There's no need to lead out for fear he'd check a blank river. So the best option is to check.

In the hand, I bet, he raised, and I called. I'm not sure if I can fold there given the size of the pot, although I can't seem him raising anything I can beat unless he has a total mind-glitch. If I can't fold to a raise, I'm not sure I can bet. If I can fold to a raise (in this spot, I think I can do it -- I need to be about 94% sure he's got a full house, which is a safe bet given his range and my show of strength), then betting is fine. But if I'm going to bet for value, I might as well check-raise for value and fold to a three-bet!

So, I should be check-calling or check-raising on that (seemingly) blank river. Leading out was a mistake.

I think this might be a small leak in my game -- leading out when I hit/improve without thinking through ranges fully.

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