Tuesday, December 11, 2007

12/9 GC: Are all paths the same?

Ok, last hand from Garden City. I'm already forgetting most of the details of the hands, thank goodness I wrote them down. This one I thought about a bit on the ride home, and my conclusion was there was really no difference in my two options.

I'm in mid position and call with ATo after two limpers (that could be a mistake, but AT unsuited feels like it should be raised in late position but not mid or early position than that). Flop comes AT6. Bingo! Checks to me, I bet, get a few callers. I'm pretty positive I'm solidly in the lead. Turn is another ten. I can't remember the suits, so lets assume it's rainbow. Checks to me, I bet, BB raises. My impression is that the big blind is a very solid guy. Youngish, clean-cut, clearly knows what he's been doing. Has played pretty tight the whole time. I check my cards again, think for a bit and just call. This is just me wanting to check-raise him on the river and be fancy. I figure him for trip tens or a flopped set. Very unlikely he has AA with the way the action has gone down.

River is a blank, he bets, I raise pretty quickly, and he looks pained. He calls after about 10 seconds, another guy asks "Ace-ten?" and I flip it up. He mucks quietly.

Afterwards, I wondered why I bother to wait until the turn to checkraise. If the board had any obvious draws, it might have netted me some money and disguised my hand. But on this board, it was pretty obvious what I had. Is there any EV advantage between three-betting the turn or check-raising the river? Against a good opponent I feel like the next time I show strength he'll realize I've got a full house. But, waiting until the river, there's always the chance he'll check-call and I'll lose a bet. Maybe I should always three-bet the turn in that spot?

One thought:

1 comment:

Thuan said...

I think you played this hand very well. Calling w/ATo from middle is perfect. It is not strong enough to raise in my opinion especially behind a couple of limpers. Now, onto the question of whether or not to 3-bet the turn or wait until the river.

Well it all depends on what the BB has (of course). W/o obvious draws, then his most likely hand is either A6, or 66. I would say that both are equally likely since he'd probably slow play both on the flop if there are no draws. In which case, if he has 66, then you have to reraise on the turn bc he'll go to war w/you. If he has A6, if you reraise, he'll most likely call you down and you'll earn the same number of bets as you did by waiting until the river. I'm guessing my your description of his river play, he had 2 pair. Given his range... popping the reraise has potential for you to make more if he's really strong. Of course, if there are draws on the board, you have to pop it on the turn bc if they miss, you'll lose them on the river.